Concept tag
#probability
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My son says my rain forecasts could be “Dutch-booked”. What does that mean?
My son is in his second year at university and sends me his course readings, I think to keep his mother humble. This week it was something about probability. On the phone I told him I was sixty percent sure the rains…
Started by Akosua Mensah4 replies158 views -
How much should one result change your mind? Thinking in degrees of belief
Base rates, the Dutch book and an ancient sceptic's coil of rope: a data scientist's case for believing by degrees.
Started by Wanjiru Kamau0 replies36 views -
My rice cooker says ‘fuzzy logic’. Is that just probability with a nicer name?
I run a kitchen in Dubai, twenty-two cooks from nine countries. We bought a Japanese rice cooker with "Fuzzy Logic" printed on the front, and it has become a running joke. The Filipino line cook says the rice is "fuzzy done". The…
Started by Joel D'Souza4 replies160 views -
Many-worlds is the most conservative reading of quantum mechanics, not the wildest
Many-worlds has a reputation as the science-fiction interpretation. I want to argue it is the opposite: the reading that adds least to the physics. Look at what the others add. Copenhagen-style views add a collapse whenever a "measurement" happens, without saying what…
Started by Pieter de Jong5 replies270 views