Concept tag
#base-rates
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How much should one result change your mind? Thinking in degrees of belief
Base rates, the Dutch book and an ancient sceptic's coil of rope: a data scientist's case for believing by degrees.
Started by Wanjiru Kamau0 replies36 views -
Thirty-four years of explaining positive screening results, and base rates still trip me up
I was a GP in Leith for a long time, and the conversation I dreaded most was not the one about a cancer diagnosis. It was the one about a positive screening test that probably meant nothing. The arithmetic is simple once…
Started by Alistair Gow5 replies187 views