Concept tag
#credence
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My son says my rain forecasts could be “Dutch-booked”. What does that mean?
My son is in his second year at university and sends me his course readings, I think to keep his mother humble. This week it was something about probability. On the phone I told him I was sixty percent sure the rains…
Started by Akosua Mensah4 replies158 views -
Is it irrational to have no precise credence at all about something like life on Europa?
A science journalist asked me last month, for a piece about the Europa missions, what probability I would put on there being life in its ocean. I said I had no idea. She pushed: “Just a number, roughly.” I said somewhere between…
Started by Lars Eriksen5 replies235 views