Concept tag
#prediction
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A model can work for decades without being true, and instrumentalism is the honest response
In my work we tune computer models of reservoirs to match years of production data, a process called history matching, and then use them to forecast. Here's the uncomfortable part: several quite different models of the rock underground match the same history…
Started by Abdulrahman Al-Bassam6 replies -
Friedman’s billiard player: is predictive success really all a model owes us?
My models predict, quite well, who will repay a small loan, using patterns in phone and payment records. They do not describe why anyone repays. Some of the strongest predictors are things that have no plausible causal story at all. A colleague…
Started by Wanjiru Njenga4 replies -
When a prediction changes what it predicts: reflexivity in my day job
Last year my team built a model to predict which small-business customers would fall behind on repayments. It worked well on historical data. Then the business acted on it: flagged customers got tighter terms and more calls. Some of them, squeezed, did…
Started by Nur Aisyah Rahman4 replies