Concept tag
#credit-scoring
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Data is not knowledge: what Dretske’s account says about my credit-scoring models
At work we decide who gets a small loan from patterns in phone use: how regularly someone tops up airtime, how many contacts they call, how their balance moves through the month. Our marketing calls this "knowing the customer". I've been reading…
Started by Wanjiru Njenga5 replies -
A correlation explains nothing until someone shows the mechanism
Our data say that people who charge their phones at regular times are more likely to repay small loans. The effect is real, stable and useful for prediction. But when a manager says this explains repayment, I object. It explains nothing. Perhaps…
Started by Wanjiru Njenga6 replies -
Correlation is not causation, I tell my team. But what exactly is the missing ingredient?
Our credit-scoring models find patterns: people who top up airtime at regular times repay loans more often. Everyone on my team can recite "correlation is not causation". Nobody can say what causation adds. It matters practically. If regular top-ups merely correlate with…
Started by Wanjiru Njenga4 replies