Thesis Outcomes rightly change how much we blame someone, even when luck decided them
Where it stands
Two drivers leave the same wedding equally drunk and drive equally badly. One gets home. The other hits a child who ran into the road. In every court I have covered, the second driver faces something far heavier than the first, and almost everyone in the gallery thinks that is right. Yet the only difference between them was luck.
This is the problem that Bernard Williams and Thomas Nagel named "moral luck" in the 1970s. Nagel pointed out that luck reaches into everything: how our actions turn out, the circumstances we face, even the temperament we are born with. If we only blamed people for what was fully in their control, there might be nothing left to blame.
The opposite view is old and strong. Kant says a good will shines like a jewel by itself, even if bad luck stops it achieving anything. In the Buddhist texts the Buddha says that intention, cetanā, is what he calls kamma.
My thesis is that the gallery is right. Outcomes are part of what we did, not a coin toss stacked on top of it. The second driver did not merely risk a death; he caused one, and blame that ignored this would be blame for a person who never existed.
Tell me why I'm wrong.