Concept tag
#credence
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My son says my rain forecasts could be “Dutch-booked”. What does that mean?
This week my son's course reading was about probability, sent, I think, to keep his mother humble. On the phone I told him I was sixty percent sure the rains would come early this year. When he asked about the dry season…
Started by Akosua Mensah4 replies -
Is it irrational to have no precise credence at all about something like life on Europa?
A friend asked me last month, after a news piece about the Europa missions, what probability I would put on there being life in its ocean. I said I had no idea. She pushed: “Just a number, roughly.” I said somewhere between…
Started by Lars Eriksen5 replies