If I can conceive it without contradiction, is it possible? Ash’arites, Hume and Kripke
I started reading the Ash'ari theologians to understand occasionalism, and I noticed how much weight they put on one principle: whatever involves no contradiction is possible, at least for God. Al-Ghazali uses it in the Tahāfut when he says the cotton might not burn when fire touches it. No contradiction in the idea, so it is possible; the regular link we see is God's custom, not a necessity in the fire.
Then I found Hume saying something very close in the Treatise: it is an established maxim that whatever the mind clearly conceives includes the idea of possible existence. Two very different projects, one principle.
But I also know about Kripke's water and H₂O. People could conceive of water turning out to be something else, and yet, on his view, that is not genuinely possible. If that is right, conceivability is not a reliable guide after all.
So my question is open, and I would like to hear different answers: is conceivability good evidence of possibility, and if not always, when? The cotton case matters to me: if I cannot rule out that the rock behaves differently tomorrow, what is my reservoir model doing?