How should a journalist judge a study in a field she knows nothing about?
Last month, in a case I was covering, an expert witness gave evidence on a forensic technique I had never heard of, with total confidence and a long list of qualifications. The defence's expert said the technique was unreliable, with equal confidence and an equally long list. I had to write something by six o'clock.
I am not going to learn forensic science in an afternoon. But it seems to me philosophy of science should have something to offer people like me, who have to decide how much weight a claim deserves without being able to check it ourselves.
My own rough list so far:
- Did the claim risk anything? Could the study have come out the other way?
- Has anyone other than the inventor of the technique reproduced it?
- Is the confidence of the expert matched by any measured error rate?
- Who disagrees, and are they disagreeing about data or about interests?
I'd like to hear what others use, especially people who work inside a science and see how outsiders misjudge it.