I know within ten seconds whether a room will laugh, but I can’t say how. Does that count as knowing?
I do stand-up on the northern circuit. After a few hundred gigs you develop a sense for a room. I walk on, say two lines, and I know whether tonight is going to work. I'm right far more often than I'm wrong. Promoters have started asking me before they book acts, which is flattering and slightly terrifying.
But if you ask me how I know, I've got nothing. Something about the noise before I start, the way people are sitting, who laughed at the compère. I can't turn it into reasons. I've tried.
A friend who did philosophy at university says this touches a big old problem. Apparently there's an ancient argument that if knowing requires giving reasons, you're stuck: every reason needs another reason, so the chain goes on forever, or goes round in a circle, or stops somewhere for no reason. And she says one modern answer is that knowing doesn't require being able to give the reasons at all, which she called "externalism".
So: do I know the room is going to be dead, or am I just a good guesser? And could someone explain the externalism thing in plain English? I left school at sixteen and I'm fine with that, but I'd like to understand this one.