Thesis Large language models understand nothing: the Chinese Room still applies
Where it stands
I build software on top of these models every day, so this isn't idle. I'll argue the thesis and see if it survives.
John Searle's 1980 paper "Minds, Brains, and Programs" imagines a man in a room who receives Chinese characters, follows an English rulebook for manipulating them, and passes back answers that fluent speakers find perfectly sensible. He understands no Chinese. Searle's conclusion: syntax isn't sufficient for semantics. Running the right program doesn't produce understanding.
An LLM is, as far as I can see, the room at scale. It manipulates tokens according to learned statistical rules, trained on text, with no contact with the things the text is about.
The famous "systems reply" says the whole room understands, even if the man doesn't. Searle's answer: let the man memorise the rulebook and do everything in his head. He still understands nothing.
So: what does a 2020s model have that the room lacks?