The Existence of God

The central volume of Swinburne's trilogy on the philosophy of theism, which argues by the standards of scientific reasoning that God's existence is more probable than not. Using Bayesian confirmation theory, he distinguishes arguments that raise a conclusion's probability (C-inductive) from those that make it more probable than not (P-inductive). Theism, he argues, is a very simple hypothesis: one person with infinite power, knowledge and freedom. He then weighs the evidence: the existence of a complex universe (the cosmological argument); its conformity to simple laws and its fine-tuning for life; the existence of consciousness; moral awareness; providence; and history and miracles. He treats the problem of evil as evidence on the other side, arguing that God has reason to allow some evil. The final step is religious experience: by the principle of credulity, how things seem is evidence of how they are, and this tips the balance towards theism. Critics, notably J. L. Mackie, doubted that such probabilities can be assessed.

It is the most thorough modern attempt to argue for God's existence by the methods of probability and scientific explanation, and a fixed point for anyone studying the arguments.